Crime and the Business Cycle in Mississippi

Author

Taylor Thrasher, University of Mississippi. Sally McDonnell Barksdale Honors College

Date of Award

2018

Document Type

Undergraduate Thesis

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Thomas Garrett

Relational Format

Dissertation/Thesis

Abstract

This thesis examines the relationship between crime and the business cycle in Mississippi. Working with a theoretical model of the individual's decision to commit a crime, I show that an increase in legal income decreases an individual's propensity to commit crime. I then use regressions to estimate the long-run and short-run income elasticities of violent crime, burglary, larceny, and vehicle theft. The long-run empirical model shows how income growth effects crime growth, and the short-run empirical model shows how income variability effects crime variability. In the long run, I find that as income increases (decreases), both burglary and larceny decrease (increase). In the short run, larceny again decreases (increases) as income increases (decreases), and burglary rises during years for which there are recessions. I find no long-run or short-run relationship between violent crime or vehicle theft and the business cycle.

Recommended Citation

Thrasher, Taylor, "Crime and the Business Cycle in Mississippi" (2018). Honors Theses. 906.
https://egrove.olemiss.edu/hon_thesis/906

Accessibility Status

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