Date of Award
Public Policy Leadership
This paper examines the effects of the supply chain crisis on the U.S.-China bilateral trade relationship and on the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. The policy goals and decision making of both the Trump administration and the Chinese Communist Party are examined, it is determined, within the context of the U.S.-China Trade War, that the Chinese Communist Party made more effective long-term policy decisions than the Trump Administration. However, despite the U.S’s policy failures, this paper finds that U.S. manufacturing competitiveness, relative to China, has actually increased in recent years. This relative increase in manufacturing competitiveness is driving the reorientation of global supply chains away from China and through other low manufacturing cost countries, as well as pushing firms to onshore manufacturing to the U.S. The author creates an economic model of a typical supply chain crisis and uses the windfall profits of publicly traded global shipping companies in order to demonstrate that the world has been experiencing a supply chain crisis since 2021. The author also uses econometric regression analysis in order to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the U.S. manufacturing sector, identifying the rising price of semiconductors as a constraining force on the economy and the growing number of job openings in the manufacturing sector as an indicator of a strong U.S. manufacturing sector recovery. Additionally, the author examines the effects of economic competition and trade tensions on the U.S.-China great power relationship, and concludes that a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies decreases the costs of future conflicts and increases the risks of economic warfare escalating into conventional warfare.
Sullivan, Benjamin, "Exogenous Supply Chain Shocks and Onshoring: An Analysis of theTrump Trade War and the U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Relationship" (2022). Honors Theses. 2502.