Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Title

Assessing the Timing of One-Sided Violence in Civil Conflict

Date of Award

2012

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

M.A. in Political Science

First Advisor

Jacob D. Kathman

Second Advisor

Susan Allen

Third Advisor

Jeff Carter

Abstract

In times of civil conflict, civilians often attempt to distance themselves from the horrors of combat. However, noncombatants play an integral role in the prospects of victory for both an incumbent and an insurgency. By choosing to support a belligerent in times of civil conflict, civilians can become targets. This thesis looks to determine at what points during civil conflict are noncombatants likely to be targeted by either an incumbent or an insurgent group. Through logistic regression, using Uppsala Conflict Data Program data, this thesis finds that insurgents increase the likelihood of committing one-sided violence after the initial months of conflict. However, as conflict drags on, the probability of insurgents harming noncombatants declines. Conversely, the longer conflict continues, the more likely it is for incumbents to perpetrate acts of one-sided violence.

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