Honors Theses
Date of Award
2003
Document Type
Undergraduate Thesis
Department
Chemical Engineering
First Advisor
Wei-Yin Chen
Relational Format
Dissertation/Thesis
Abstract
An event-driven Monte Carlo method is used to simulate a simple, nonlinear epidemic. This model illustrates how quickly and to what degree an epidemic spreads through a population. Moreover, it yields information concerning the uncertainties of the epidemic. Some basic assumptions involving the probabilistic dependence of the rate of change of each class in the population must be determined. The rate of infection and the rate of removal from infection are based on case studies found in literary sources. The evolution of the populations is estimated on a time scale that is advanced based on the waiting time. The waiting time, in turn, is estimated by the aforementioned rates and a random number generated by a computer program. The simulation is repeated as many times as there are individuals in the population, so that a mean value and the variance can be determined. Two Fortran 77 computer programs are used to obtain the Monte Carlo When the simulation results are compared to the data obtained from literature, it is shown that all of the data points fell within the variance outlined by the simulation. The simulation results compare well with those from the master equation. information. i
Recommended Citation
Bannerman, Blair Margaret, "Monte Carlo Simulation of a Nonlinear Epidemic" (2003). Honors Theses. 2174.
https://egrove.olemiss.edu/hon_thesis/2174
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