Honors Theses

Date of Award

1-1-2011

Document Type

Undergraduate Thesis

Department

Croft Institute for International Studies

First Advisor

Joshua Howard

Relational Format

Dissertation/Thesis

Abstract

Gabriel Weiss: Conflict or Compromise: China’s Perceptions and Intentions Regarding US Defense Policy Towards Taiwan (Under the direction of Dr. Joshua Howard)

China’s perception ofTaiwan as a “renegade” province continues to be a source of contention in Sino-US relations. Domestic pressures have reinforced Beijing’s commitment to enforcing the One-China policy and regaining Taiwan. In recent years, the US has failed to reduce weapons sales to Taiwan. Additionally, America has displayed a willingness to employ military force in defense of its global interests. These factors have led China to perceive the US as a potential foe—particularly in regards to the Taiwan issue.

Committed to regaining Taiwan, China currently pursues a dual approach in regards to facilitating reunification—civilian and military. The civilian approach entails working towards reunification via political and economic influence. The military approach involves preparing the PLA for a potential cross-Strait contingency. With an increasingly powerful military, China plans to deter the US from intervening in defense ofTaiwan. If peaceful means fail, China hopes to develop the PLA to the point that it would overcome any joint Taiwanese and American resistance in a conflict over the island.

Beijing currently employs a reactive policy of active defense. The policy is active in that China seeks to deter and preempt potential violations ofthe One-China policy. On the other hand, the PRC’s strategy is reactive in that Beijing’s relationship to the US remains based on the degree to which America adheres to the One-China policy. In the event of a perceived violation ofits One-China policy, China responds with sharp rhetoric and threatening displays of force. This allows the PRC to satisfy the needs of domestic consumption while at the same time deterring further perceived encroachments on China’s territorial sovereignty. Still, China currently prefers a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue and avoids letting its relationship with the US deteriorate completely.

The balance of power in the Taiwan-Strait is currently shifting in China’s favor. Whether by peaceful means, or with military force, the PRC is gradually moving to ensure reunification with Taiwan. Ifthe US hopes to resolve the Taiwan issue in its favor, Washington must act quickly—possibly by facilitating the creation of a “One-Nation, Three-System” arrangement. This solution has the potential to defuse the Taiwan issue as a lingering source of contention in Sino-US relations.

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